Revisiting Strategic Autonomy Debates in Taiwan: How Taiwan Navigates Pressure from US Vis-a-Vis China in a Chip-centered New Cold War?

Principle Investigator：Megha Shrivastava

Introduction:
21st Century has witnessed an intensified US-China strategic competition, increasingly being centered around critical and emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI). Nowhere is this intersection more pronounced than in Taiwan—a critical node in the global semiconductor supply chain and a political flashpoint in East Asia. The emerging policy shifts include the tightening of outbound investment in high-tech sectors, efforts to localize key upstream production, and the strategic use of “track II diplomacy” and communication strategies aimed at de-escalating tensions while signaling resilience.
At the outset of emerging developments, it is worth examining whether policy shifts like the CHIPS and Science Act and the emerging “Chip 4” alliance, while provide a protective framework and innovation ecosystem, also risk constraining Taiwan’s room for maneuver by hardwiring it into US-centric technological architectures. Simultaneously, China’s economic statecraft, including informal trade sanctions and incentives for talent migration, whether it intensifies Taiwan’s vulnerability in sectors where cross-strait interdependence remains significant.

Research Questions:
This proposed research examines how the semiconductor sector is influencing Taiwan's evolving discourse on strategic autonomy in the face of mounting pressures from both the United States and the People’s Republic of China. To deepen the current understanding of these evolving dynamics, the proposed research aims to achieve following objectives:
(a) To study how the ongoing turmoil in the global chip supply chain reshapes Taiwan’s long-term position, its economic-industrial policy, and foreign policy.
(b) To understand how the larger discourse on strategic national security and strategic authority is being altered amid US-China technology rivalry.
(c) To outline the strategic hedging behaviour by Taiwan, US and China, through an examination of their industrial and foreign policies.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
This proposed tends to draw its analysis from the strategic hedging theory in international relations, to discern ways in which how US-China-Taiwan dynamics are being reshaped. The study is majorly qualitative in nature, which draws on both primary and secondary research. The assessment made through primary and official documents is triangulated through expert and elite interviews with Taiwanese policymakers, scholars, and industry experts.

Significance and Novelty
The study identifies a growing internal debate within Taiwan's strategic community about how to reconcile its deep technological integration with both superpowers while maintaining sufficient policy flexibility. By situating Taiwan’s semiconductor diplomacy within the broader framework of national resilience and external alignment, the study offers new insights into how small states with critical technological assets negotiate power asymmetries in an emerging Cold War environment.